All major shipping companies but the Chinese have stopped operations to and from Russia.
There is also a strong civilian maritime dimension to the war. The blockade might contribute to further diplomatically isolate Russia by making the global south, until now reluctant to condemn Russia’s aggression, revise its stance and side with the west in pointing at Russia’s wrongdoings. The high representative of the EU for foreign affairs and security policy, Josep Borrell, said that the blockade of Ukraine that disrupts grain shipments is “a real war crime”. Also, a weakened Russia in the Black Sea might open the door to the establishment of a safe corridor.Īt a diplomatic level, freedom of navigation – especially when its disruption causes food shortages – is a core norm of the global maritime order that seafaring nations, led by the west, are committed to upholding. These tactical victories will challenge Russia’s ability to deny Ukraine access to the north-western Black Sea – with long-term strategic consequences. Ukraine also targeted oil rigs located in the Crimean waters (occupied since 2014) and launched air strikes against Russian installations on Snake Island. Using harpoon missiles supplied by the west, Ukraine successfully attacked a Russian tugboat supplying Snake Island, which is strategically vital for Russia’s control over the area. The pressure exercised by Ukraine in the Black Sea has further increased in June. No longer the ‘pride’ of the Black Sea fleet: the Russian cruiser Moskva in better times. Since the sinking of the cruiser Moskva in April, the Russian navy is not safe when operating too close to the shore. Ukraine itself is proactively targeting Russian assets in the Black Sea. Nevertheless, this option is still on the table. It is also crucial to prevent the approach to the port city of Odesa from becoming vulnerable to a Russian attack following its de-mining and avoiding potential escalation between Russian forces and escort vessels. In particular, agreeing on procedures and safeguards with Russia, clearing the corridor of mines to an acceptable standard for maritime insurances and operators, and managing Turkey’s interpretation of the Montreux Convention, which gives Ankara control over the access routes between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean and beyond. Technical, legal, operational and strategic difficulties make it arduous to establish a safe corridor to and from Ukraine. But this is also offering the west an opportunity to take the upper hand where they have a comparative advantage: upholding freedom of the sea and rallying partners under the banner of humanitarianism.
It can blockade Ukraine and use the resulting food crisis as a bargaining chip (or blackmailing tool) to negotiate the lifting of western sanctions. Moves and strategiesĪt first sight, Russia seems to be in a dominant position. This has drawn attention to the importance of freedom of navigation. The blockade of Ukraine, which prevents the shipment of grain and other agricultural products to the global south, is responsible for a worldwide food crisis. This grants the west with the capacity to gradually suffocate Putin’s regime by exercising strategic sea power. But Putin is also confronted by a coalition of maritime (mainly western) nations, which champion freedom of navigation, have superior naval capabilities and a strong influence on the world’s maritime affairs. Ukraine is a land power as much as Russia.
Russia, like its predecessor, the Soviet Union, lacks a maritime outlook – which prevents Moscow from grasping the strategic importance of sea power beyond its short-term naval preponderance in the Black Sea. As the maritime dimension of the conflict intensifies, the west’s mastery of the sea, its dominance of relevant maritime forums (such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO)) and its influence over big insurance brokers and shipping companies, will eventually be fatal to Putin’s war. The longer a war, the more likely it is to be won by a sea power. Consequently, Russia, which is a continental power, is now more likely to be strategically defeated. The war at sea is intensifying.įrom the blockade in the Black Sea, to growing tensions in the Baltic Sea, Ukraine’s assertiveness in destroying Russian naval assets and the role played by civilian shipping sector in sanctioning Russia, the war’s maritime aspects are now emerging and are likely to be more influential in the outcome of the conflict. At the same time, a less perceptible change is happening. As the Russian offensive intensifies in the Donbas without resulting in any substantial gains, western leaders warn that the war will be long, and supporting Ukraine must be sustained in the long term. The Ukraine war is at a strategic turning point.
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